View Single Post
  #8  
Old 10-28-2005, 12:17 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Weak 4th street check?

Disclaimer part two: I really am idiot, I answered a 5 Stud question with 7 Stud earlier [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

I would probably raise straight from the get-go on 3rd. This is because I do not want my Jacks tested by 5-6 players random holdings that they may consider just good enough to peel one off. Were you going for the call/reraise? Or, was that a result of Seat 5 raising? We know your Hearts are dead, so we surely do not want many people in the pot.

Well... they all called. On 4th we see a King die and an Ace hit (along with more dead hearts and a load of dead possible straightening cards, if you were to have been lucky). Would seat 8 check/raise Aces in this position? Check/call with them? There is only one other overcard out, and all the other boards look pretty shabby (as in, except 6 and 8). My thinking is that 8 probably did not make Aces. Further, if he just made a four-flush, we know three of his cards are dead. (So, he is drawing to 6 cards instead of 9 - given that, we would really like to be heads-up or short-handed with him here.)

Seat 6 is a weird one. We now have reason to doubt he has Tens and a reason to doubt his Kings. Further, if he does have Tens, we are in really good shape now. We also have a good reason to doubt a straight draw. In general, though I am not sure what he has, I think I could often have him beat here. If he does have Kings, we have a bit of a problem though...

Seat 2 appears to have a complete shambles. Of course, he still called the 3rd street completion and raise. Seat 5 only called the raise on 3rd - either he is happy multiway or thinking that he probably should not have completed.

I think you bet out here, hoping to fold as much as possible. You are most likely buying equity, even if you are not in there with the best hand. I do not think you are going to beat 4 hands at 7th. However, I think you probably have the best hand here - at least with reasonable frequency.

Further, I think you should raise when seat 6 decides you are not going to just sit there and all see how nice of a hand we can make. If you had made the original bet, anyone with a decent hand in 5, 6 or 8 would have helped your reduce the participant count here. I don't think the uncertainty we buy by not following up on the 3rd raise is worth it in this situation.

On 5th, well... now we have a mess. Just about every opponent *could* have you beat here. Probably they do not, but they all now have overcards to your pair. Further, you are going to have to act in front of seat 6. (Which is good, because you would be in really bad shape if you didn't [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]). We are now trying to thin a field where we hold a really good chance of being beaten. When he chooses to raise you here, I think I am done with it. I am not sure I would have bet it, anyway.

On 6th you catch a really nice card. Not only do you know that there is barely anything he can hold that you do not beat, but you have him scared after your check/raise. From here on it's obvious, but really: I would complete 3rd, bet 4th and probably check/fold or bet/fold 5th. (I am not sure check/folding 5th is a good play, I am just saying that I would probably do it.)

If you don't agree, please tell me why. Thank you. If it's not logically consistent, that's because it got long and these edit boxes are really small - so, just go with the general flow.
Reply With Quote