[CORed]

There has been a lot of talk about terrorists using smallpox. The real question is whether the terrorists are willing to make martyrs out of millions of people in the third world, including the people they claim to represent, in order to kill a few thousand people in the US (Possibly many more if they use a vaccine resistant strain). If terrorists release ordinary wild type smallpox in the US tomorrow, Several hundred to several thousand people will die in the initial outbreak. However, in a few weeks to a few months, nearly all of the US population will be vaccinated and immune. Also, many people over 40 may have some immunity because they were vaccinated in childhood. However, smallpox is a highly infectious disease. By the time the US population is vaccinated, the epedemic will almost certainly have spread world wide. In Western Europe, Japan and any other places with a good medical infrastucture, it should be contained fairly quickly, but in Latin America, India, Africa, South Asia, etc. it is likely to take many years to get smallpox under control. We know the terrorists are irrational. The fact that suicide bombings and plane hijackings have been their tactics of choice proves this. But are they crazy enough to think unleashing smallpox on the world again is worth it if they can kill some Americans? I wish I knew the answer.