[baggins]

the other night i was struck yet again at how elusive and unlikely the badbeat jackpots are to win. i mean, first of all (where i play anyways) you have to have AAATT or better beaten, and both hole cards have to play. kickers can tie or beat the board, in the case of kickers.

this is a tough enough margin. then add in every time someone throws away a hand that would have hit. and consider the board and how the order it comes in could effect how somebody played their hand, and whether or not a jackpot situation is being pushed out of the pot.

then consider the fact that some people just don't play some of the hands that could win. not that they should play all of them, certainly not. but sometimes...

other night, at a 5-10 with a jackpot eligibility, i watched the following board come up: A23AA. JJ took the pot. the guy next to me claims he folded A6s preflop. doesn't realize that he would have hit the jackpot if he had played it. certainly would have stuck around on the flop; nobody bet. turning trips, he's not going anywhere. and by the river, he should be betting lightly, but not too lightly. wanna keep those TT, JJ, QQ, KK in the hand, if they are out there. and there was reason to believe that it was.

maybe im just bitter about not hitting because some guy didn't play a hand.

just noticing how much harder hitting a jackpot is than it seems.