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Old 12-22-2005, 05:28 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
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Default Re: limit O8 - betting top two pair or a set on the turn (or not)

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What I was mostly concerned with in regards to this hand was Hero's position. I feel since he was the preflop raiser and driving the bus the whole way, he has to continue to keep his foot on the gas.

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Knoll - Here’s a quote from the opening post of this thread.

“Four of Hero’s opponents see the flop for one small bet each. SB bets the flop, BB calls, and Hero raises.”

As you can see, Hero did not raise before the flop. Rather, Hero raised on the flop. However, it’s a moot point because Hero was “driving the bus” before the turn.

Hero’s raise on the second betting round seems absolutely correct to me. With two cards yet to come, Hero figures to make a decent full house or the nut flush or a nut straight more often than not.

But then, as happens more often than not when things look very rosy immediately after the flop, the turn is ugly (but not an absolute disaster).

Now what?

You wrote:
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I feel since he was .... driving the bus the whole way, he has to continue to keep his foot on the gas. ..... if he doesn't get any new money in before the river and hits, I think it's highly doubtful he'll get paid off.

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I agree Hero is more likely to collect when he hits on the river if the pot is bigger. And that seems a good reason to be aggressive.

Another good reason to be aggressive was suggested by Chaos: [ QUOTE ]
I think one of the keys to playing the turn is to be aggressive with all of your good hands. If you bet your wrap straight draws strongly in this same spot, it will be harder for your opponents to put you on a specific hand. They will not know whether you have a made hand like a set or two pair, or are betting on the come with a straight or a flush draw.

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What to do obviously will always depend on your opponents and the exact situation. And I like mixing it up a bit. But how about some general guidelines for this very common situation?

I like the reasoning for aggressive play.

Still ..... if you take away the nut flush draw leaving Hero with just top two pair (four scoop outs), I don’t like betting on the third betting round. <font color="white">_</font>I’m not sure I’m even calling with only four scoop outs. Raising seems overly aggressive (maniacal). Similarly, I also don’t like betting on the third betting round if all Hero had here was the nut flush draw (four scoop outs plus five half-pot outs). <font color="white">_</font>However, I wouldn’t characterize raising with the nut flush draw as maniacal.

The number of outs Hero has is obviously a factor. In terms of general guidelines, I’m leaning toward wanting a minimum of ten scoop outs (or the equivalent) to bet a draw on the turn when low, a straight, or a flush is not yet possible. Depends on the number of opponents and how they play, of course.

I don’t think initiating fresh money into the pot depends much on the size of the pot already. However, calling or not does depend very much on the size of the pot.

In the opening post hand/flop/turn, Hero has 8 scoop outs plus 5 half pot outs. I’d say that was good enough to bet, even though Hero can’t like the 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn much. I think that’s about equivalent to top set (would be ten scoop outs here). A wrap-around straight draw with at least ten scoop equivalent outs works for me too, as do various straight/flush straight/boat, flush/boat combinations.

What if low, a straight, or a flush is already possible? Then I think Hero backs off betting draws, including top set (depending on how many opponents he's facing and how they play of course).

That’s admittedly a somewhat conservative approach.

Buzz
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