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Old 12-18-2005, 10:40 PM
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Default Re: Calculating flush odds MY WAY.

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10 handed. 10/20 cent limit. u get a5 of spades. 5 calls = pot total 50 cent.

SB bets > 3 folds. You have 4 flush. the odds of ending up with flush at the showdown are according to D. Sklansky are 1.86 : 1.

My version: 20 cards were dealt out preflop. quarter of them or 5 cards will be in the long run spades. u picked up two. Lets assume the other 3 spades will be folded. and two other on the board.

Shoulnt you calculate the chance of flush at the showdown like this:

13 spades total. u have two and three were folded, 2 spades on board. 6 spades in the deck over. so 6/47 * 5/46 + 6/47 * 41/46 + 41/47 * 6/46.

so odds of ending up with flush are 3.09 : 1

discuss...

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Discuss? Are you serious?

Every other week, some lamebrain posts the exact same thing. What about the discards? There must be only 7 spades left in the deck. Yada Yada.

I guess it's a good sign.

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"Lamebrain"? I understand the veterans here have seen many of these posts before and can get tired of them. What I don't understand is why you don't either: A.) Answer it for the new guy who is trying to take a thinking approach to the game and came up with a question. or B.) Just skip replying. If you don't have the ability to explain a simple point, then just go back to your reading and leave this question to be answered by others. Everyone knew what this post was going to be by the subject, so if you don't have anything useful, just move on.
Sorry for the rant.
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