Re: Turn Line
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My thoughts exactly. If UTG had me beat, he would have check/raised the turn. But can I call/call? The odds MP's giving me suck balls.
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yeah, at this point i have to think if you're hand is good. assuming UTG calls (which he probably will) and figuring you call most cards on the river and it goes:
UTG checks, <font color="red">mp3 bets</font>, hero calls, UTG calls. you're getting 4.5:1 meaning he has to be playing A6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] suited or semi-bluffing 7 times out of 10 to call this turn and river profitably (assuming we call the river)
now to the river: this is difficult because the semi-bluff is very good on the turn as if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes, we don't know which one he was betting or maybe he had 3 of a kind and we're dead. so cards we have to maybe dodge (if he's semi-bluffing): Aces, 7s, [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s, and [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s.
we only have to be wrong 3 times out of 10 to be break even. how 'bout this line:
3-bet, fold to a cap, check behind on the river UI (that includes a K or Q of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s) [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
i don't like calling, i'd like to try and get UTG out of there, plus i think we may have him beat, so if he calls that's more dead money anyways. this might be spewing though, so i'm still thinking [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
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