[Catt]

Spicy - math is good and often underutilized in some analyses here. However, you're trying to pencil out (Excel-out) an equation with XXX variables, each of which has x- XX% probability. Not only is the equation incredibly complicated due to the number of variables, but the output is entirely dependent on the assumptions we assign to each variable (which helps in part to derive the XX%). With nothing solid upon which to base the assumptions, and with the number of variables at play, penciling this out is not a productive use of time. This is one of many situations in which experience trumps a disinterested look at the euqations we might build.