Re: This is an ace every single time
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I disagree about the fact that guessing a "random" number is better.
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I'm playing poker for 13 years, and my educated guesses are far from random.
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Sorry. Random wasn't the word I was looking for, which was why I put it in quotes. I just couldn't figure out a better word to use. What I meant was that while going by your gut, and what you are used to is good, sometimes the "obvious" isn't always right. A ton of stuff we know we just take for granted, and it is right, and we know it is right. But there is also stuff which we think is right, but we don't actually know the numbers behind it, and we may be wrong. I think using math when it is available to us is a good way to check our educated guesses.
I agree that the math here may be a bit hard, and will use a lot of estimations. I don't think that using these estimations is bad though, because we are going to have to use estimations no matter what. I would just rather have them closer to the source of the problem then at a general level.
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