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I really like the Falcons today, but I am not going to recommend them here. What I will recommend is taking the under at 43 or below, but only if Chad Lavalais (DT) plays. Here's why: Falcons defense has been absolutely TERRIBLE the last 2 weeks, in large part because they have missed Brady Smith both weeks and Chad Lavalais last week. Detroit's offense is TERRIBLE. Even without Brady Smith, the Falcons stopped the Dolphins. The Falcons should make it difficult for the Lions today. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons have been scoring a lot of offensive points. This has been due in large part to being down by 14 and 13 early in the games and Vick passing the ball a lot more than usual.

I expect the Falcons running game to be predominant today against Detroit's weak defense, to avoid turnovers (which have killed them) and to stop Detroit's offense.

If Chad Lavalais plays, take the under. If not, avoid this game. If you have to play a side, take the Falcons at -3 (for one thing Syg is almost always wrong about the Falcons [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].)

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Good one, and good analysis except there's one problem: Detroit doesn't have a weak D.

Off for Thanksgiving festivites. Have a great day all!

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I really was focused on their run defense. "Weak" may have been the wrong term. They are 15th in the league against the run -- facing the best rushing offense in the league. They are not "strong" against the run, nor are they terrible. To me, "weak" equals "not strong", which I think is true. Its really semantics. I also base my conclusion in large part on what I saw in the Dallas game. If the Falcons O-Line can open up holes as big as Julius Jones had, Warrick Dunn should have a pretty good day.