[Roswell]

Great post.

I agree with your reasoning as to why he did not have a full house. In addition to the things you mentioned, I think it is relevant that he quickly called your two bets (likely on a draw), and quickly bet the river. If he had the boat, he would probably have thought about how much you would pay off.

Lately I have been playing in really good NL games against really bad players (at the Bike and the Commerce.) I pretty much play in the style you describe: wait for huge hands then go allin (and I still get nine callers. In Los Angeles, nobody folds).

It's obviously the best meta-game strategy against terrible players. However, I think it's hurting my long-term prospects, because I'm avoiding marginal spots and tough decisions. I figure: why push a small edge, when a guy will put in $2000 with top pair against your set?