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Old 08-05-2005, 09:52 PM
tylerdurden tylerdurden is offline
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Default Re: Simulation Results

[ QUOTE ]
Now if we multiply 400*0.136644 = 54.6575 we get the expected number of failures. We have not counted any overlaps twice because for each failure start time we only counted overlaps with failures that began after the original start time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very nice. I agree with your line.

Now, if I want to expand this to see about 3 simultaneous failures, it should be pretty simple, right?

When two machines fail simultaneously, the average length of overlap should be 1.5 hours.

So we have 54.6575 events where two failures overlap. The expected number of failures during that overlap period should be 398 * 1.5/365/24 = 0.06815

54.6575*0.06815= 3.725 triple failures. This seems about right.

Extending from here should be obvious.
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