[quix0tic]

making good reads on players is great and all but don't invite undue pressure on yourself like this. good NL players are putting others in uncomfortable situations more frequently than they themselves are stressed. this hand is a good example of when blocking bets are useful. betting out maybe 200-300 on the river puts a lot of pressure on utg, enough that a tight player will basically never raise without a better hand. you are essentially setting the price for showdown, not him. if he raises its no worry because you know you are no good; he can still call with hands you beat, and you avoid a tough river decision. don't put yourself in these brutal spots. its too easy to make a costly mistake.