[Aaron W.]

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The play, and the post, were made in a bit of a mischievous spirit, and I'm not going to argue that this play was +EV, but some analysis might help us to better define the limits of post-stealing with junk.

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This is not post-stealing in the conventional sense. Post-stealing is when you post from the cutoff or somewhere else in LATE POSITION. Your positional advantage is very important in the steal attempt.

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I'll ask the question this way...What are some minimum changes in the dynamics of the hand that would be necessary for you to raise these two cards? I assume everyone raises with this hand when they post in the CO and it's folded to them.

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Position is important. Being an actual poster is important.

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Is it simply untenable to steal from the SB with multiple posters?

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Yes. But this doesn't mean you should play your normal SB game. With this many players, hands should be raised for value (ie pot-building). Since the average hand I expect to see is weaker than usual, more hands have value than usual.

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Asked another way, what's the minimum hand you raise with here? 42o? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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My raising requirements are slightly looser than my normal raising requirements.

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The chief considerations in this hand are (1) There are as many as 4.5 SB's worth of dead money in the pot when it gets to us pf. (2) None of the four players in the pot have a good hand. (3) The button and any poster that calls will play poorly post-flop. (4) Raise or fold are the only options, since calling gets us in a 6-way pot looking for a miracle. (5) The probabilty for getting it HU with button is undefined but significantly greater than zero. (6) We're OOP.

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(2) If there are three posters, you expect that one of them has an above average hand about 87.5% of the time. So while they probably don't have a monster, it's not reasonable to assume that they all have complete junk.

(4) False. Taking a cheap flop with dead money and hoping for a miracle is perfectly acceptable.

(5) See (2). I don't think it's "significantly" greater than zero.