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Old 11-15-2005, 05:47 PM
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Default Re: Live 40/80 flop middle pair with a backdoor flush

The easiest/safest path is to call the CR and handle the turn according to what it is (with the likelihood of raising said turn). But, who wants easiest and safest?

You beat any 7 other than the T7 and the 72. I can't see the preflop call with 72, and I think that many people would wait for the turn to CR T7 here.

You're a dog to any T, and T9, JT, QT, KT, and AT are all possible holdings, as are 55, 66, 88, 99 (the other pocket pairs being weighted towards either a reraise preflop or a CR on the turn). 89 doesn't help much, either, and against all those hands, you are a 65:35 dog.

Adding in 87, 97, J7, Q7, K7, and A7, and it moves to 51:49, still a dog. If there's a likelihood he would play AK-AJ this way (i.e. calling the PF raise, waiting to raise the flop just for value), you're in slightly better shape.

All of which says a fold doesn't suck, but another play would be to three bet his check raise to rescue your position and the free turn. As Fianchetto noted, a spade on the turn will dramatically change the hand for you.
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