Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
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SB throws in a purple (500) and a black (100) chip.
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At first blush I like it. Everything seems to be alligned. The MP1 doesn't want to go home. The SB didn't even mean to raise, much less call all in. The biggest worry is that the tricky player decides to take the almost 1.8 odds and put you on a middle pair and call w/ his junky broadway or vice versa. I'm assuming that you are pretty positive that mr. tricky saw the SB's blunder, yes?
My guess is that you have about a .95 * .95 * .65 chance of getting it folded around. (55-60%)
When you are called by the MP1 or SB, you are likely around 25% equity. When you are called by the MP3, you are probably around 35-40% equity. (total rough intuition guesses without any hand range analysis).
Also, your image is obviously perfect for it.
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