[Buzz]

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Probably over half the time, your flush will be good when it hits (I'll do the math if anyone calls me on that number).

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Phil - I’d like to see how you do the math. Looks like a very tough problem to me.

As calculated, the hand, after this flop, figures to make a spade flush 360/990, or 3636/10000. That’s easy. But how often, when five opponents see this flop, will the jack high flush end up a winner? That’s hard.

As simulated, A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], with five opponents holding random cards and with a flop of
2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] makes a flush 3658/10000, winning 1684/10000 and losing 1974/10000.

Note that the board figures to pair or make two pair or three of a kind after this flop, and considering Hero’s hand, (9*8/2+9*36+6*6+4*3)/990 = 444/990 = almost 45% of the time. And some of those pairs will result in opponents making full houses.

As simulated, Hero’s five opponents with random cards made winning flushes after this flop a total of 1609 times. Thus Hero’s jack high flush actually won more often than it lost to other flushes.

If we make the board
2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], as it actually was after the turn, then Hero wins with a flush 4790/10000 and loses with a flush 5210/10000. As simulated, Hero’s five opponents with random cards make a winning flush 740+714+713+713+709 = 3589. (Hero’s five opponents with random cards make full houses or quads the other 1621/10000 times).

So you’re correct if you’re thinking Hero’s jack high flush doesn’t lose to higher flushes as much as it wins. However, I think you may not have taken into account the possibility of the board pairing (thus enabling a full house or quads).

I’ve been to Cairns. Nice place. I remember that part of Australia for the friendly people, the fantastic SCUBA diving off the Great Barrier Reef - and a bird that sang at night and sounded like a human who had gone raving mad might sound. As I recall the bird cackled madly all through the night. Hoo hoo hoo hoo ha ha ha ha hoo hoo hoo hoo ha ha ha ha hoo hoo hoo ha ha ha ha. On and on. Again and again. Neat bird!

Anyhow, I don't think the 4th-nut flush will be good over half the time when it hits after five opponents have seen this flop.

Consider yourself called.

Buzz