[frappeboy]

There is a concept I'd like to discuss here. When your opponent pairs his door card, he usually either has A) Trips, B) Pair with 3 flush C) 2 pair. The likelihood of each depends on how 3rd street was played. Here are the 4 possiblities.

A1) The pot is unraised and your opponent has a small pair
A2) The pot is unraised and your opponent has a medium/big pair (I define this as 8s or higher).
B1) The pot is raised and your opponent has a small pair
B2) The pot is raised and your opponent has a medium/big pair.

Lets analyze each possibility

A1: It is more likely that your opponent has trips here than if the pot was raised. This is simple to understand because lots of players won't play small pairs for a raise. It is ALSO more likely that your opponent has trips here than if your opponent had a medium/big pair showing. This is because if he had started with a medium/big pair he'd be more inclined to raise. You should almost always fold against this player.

A2: It is possible, but not as likely that your opponent has trips here. The point is players are more likely to raise on third with medium/big pairs. Also, there are more playable hands when the door card is higher. For instance your opponent could be playing 3 high cards here, maybe a hand like JT9. If his door card was a 3, its less likely he started with a hand like 345. Therefore against this scenario you should actually play LOOSER than if your opponent made a small pair showing.

B1) The pot is raised and your opponent pairs his small card. Since the pot was raised it is less likely that he started with a split pair, although against lots of players its still very possible. You should play looser in this scenario than you would if the pot was unraised on 3rd. It is much more likely that your opponent started with a 3 flush here than on scenario A1. Still play very cautious but play looser than A1.

B2) Since the pot was raised, it now becomes more likely that your opponent has trips when he pairs his medium/big door card. Play much tighter in this scenario than if the pot was unraised on 3rd, as in scenario A2.


This may sound long winded, but its interesting theory. Also, another point of this, is if the pot was raised on 3rd, and your opponent who's door card is low catches a suited card on 4th, it is MORE likely he has a 4 flush than if he started with a big card. So when your opponent makes a 3 flush on board on 5th street, you should play much tighter against a small card in the door than a big card in the door.

How this relates to this example, is it is very likely that your opponent who called with the ten now has trips. Also even the guy with 2s could have it. Fold.