Re: Week 14 picks
Based on what I've tested, the system is meeting my expectations. Will it have a winning year? that remains to be seen, but based on what I've seen I expect it to do real well coming down the final stretch. I was thinking of increasing my bet size to 7% of bankroll because generally the last four weeks or so have the least amount of selections, and the highest win rate of all other weeks something close to 65% of games. Another thing I've noticed is that it picks favorites a lot more then dogs, still trying to figure out why that is.
Overall though, I'm happy with this years result. I guess the only think I need to work on is developing a proper betting amount, perhaps something like the Kelly system where each game will have a unit amount. I think I'll work on that in the off season, but it I think it will prove to be challenging. Another thought is just flat betting 2%, I will hopefuly have a bigger BR next year.
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