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Old 12-06-2005, 12:18 PM
Cooker Cooker is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 159
Default Re: Why Two Dimes Data Is Wrong (Continued...)

[ QUOTE ]
Let's go back to Greg's last example, but along a different line.

Flop: 6c 8d Qd
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ad 2d Kh 3h 205 205 615 0 630 0 0 0.528
6s Tc Td 6d 159 615 205 0 0 0 0 0.472

After this flop, in heads-up limit play, the second hand is stuck in the pot. That's not necessarily true of the first hand.

No diamond flush, no low, no straight, the first hand can bail before the last betting round. But if any of these come in, in heads-up limit play, the second hand is stuck.

It may look like the hands are pretty close but I think you're going to lose a lot less with the first hand.

(This has nothing particularly to do with my suggesting a scoop is worth more than two half pots in a real game. This is a different consideration, but one perhaps worth noting at this time).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

No one is disputing the fact that some hands have playing advantages on later streets which will make the twodimes equity less important. What people are saying is that if you are all in on a given street then the twodimes equity is all that is important and that it doesn't matter where the equity comes from (splitting, scooping whatever). Of course if there is betting on the later rounds there are implied odds and reverse implied odds which will drastically change the profitability of the hands. The point is that the EV calculation twodimes gives you the percent of the pot and every bet that goes in on that round that you will get IF YOU GO TO SHOWDOWN. If there will be more betting on later streets the cost on those streets may cause you to fold or cause you to make significant -EV plays that reduce the EV of the whole hand (or even make it negative), but this is why you should consider these things and not just the twodimes data.

The point FatBallz has been trying to make is that there is no statistical fast one being pulled by twodimes (which was what you indicated in your early posts). The fact is twodimes doesn't include implied odds or reverse implied odds, so with future betting, you must not rely entirely upon the twodimes EV, however, if you are going to be all in, then you should rely entirely upon the twodimes EV and the type of draw you have (scoop, low half, high half) is unimportant.
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