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DISCLAIMER: Sleep depravation may be screwing up this post.
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Fallen Hero:

As to TT and KK who have limped in raising on the turn instead of checking it, quite so, but then so will anyone who has made a set--esp a small one and wants to protect it. So, I don't think you'll be getting more info this way.


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As I've said before I don't think TT-KK is on villain's hand range

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Unless I'm missing something, " he has put you to the decision, not the other way around. "

And "way too many ifs"

Granted, you're right about limping and calling a small raise against 1 opponent with J-10s or 8-7s, UTG 'perfectly sober'.-- esp in a typical 5 handed game. It might even be a +ev play

IN FACT:

"I don't need to feel lucky to raise a flush draw here"

Which sucks against AA as far as a + EV play (er..35%, right?) is a GREAT move IF you're playing against a by-the- book aggressive/tight opponent who plays only few quality hands, raises AA on a ragged flop BUT then when he's re-raised forgets his aggression, and only remembers his tightnes.


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being oop sucks [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I know there's a lot we beat here that's why I said I don't like folding on the flop, but putting villain on a range of hands here I'd say he has: a set, a combo draw, a simple flush draw or a pair (if he's really bad). Of those I'd say generally he checks behind on the turn with a pair and a bad flush draw (aka what we beat) and bets the rest.
So what I'm basically saying is that by moving in on the flop he folds everything we beat and calls with everything that beats us (or has us 50/50), by calling and checking the turn you get a better idea what his hand is (at the cost of a free card, nothing you can do here).

About the whole "going from tight agressive to weak/tight": overpairs oop on big pots (specially with that kind of flop) are horrible, there's nothing weak/tight about it.

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Taking the risks of either going all-in and losing to a set or folding to a bluff is far bettter than going from tight/aggressive to weak/tight after the flop.


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I couldn't disagree more [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] (and I rarely do something I consider weak tight, in fact I spend most of my time looking at hands I think I played to agressively [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

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Ok, maybe sleep deprivation is screwing up my thinking but, to recap:

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A.
UTG calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6, UTG calls $5, Button folds.

Flop: ($13.50) 6, 9, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $12, UTG raises to $24

Now, to my thinking, if at this point hero pushes and takes down the pot, terrific. There's enough dough.

Losing to a set? Sure it's not an easy call BUT
I still can't figure out why you don't put villain on TT-KK? Just because he limped? He's already called a raise and gone over the top on the raggedy flop.

So, if I understand what you're saying, you're putting him on a possible draw, so you check the turn and if he bets it, then THAT's the indicator that he's made his hand ( er. . . esp if a 'scare card comes? ) or already had a set on the flop.

And you don't consider this weak/tight play. Though you're giving a free card, you're going to get the info, because if he is on a draw he's going to check after you check, and if he bets (how much, btw?) you fold.

I see the logic of your thinking here but . . .

OK, time to get some sleep and have nightmares about hands I've overplayed [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Pax, all.