Re: AK UTG (super Tuesday)
There is a 1 in 11 chance someone at your table has AA/KK without knowing any other cards. You took away two cards that give him those options. Instead of 6 ways to make AA or KK, he now has 3, making the possibility he has AA or KK go from your 10% assumption to 5% and of that 5% he has AA 2.5% and KK 2.5%
AK beats AA 13% or .325 out of 2.5 times
AK beats KK 34% or .85 out of 2.5 times
You win against AA or KK 1.175 out of 5 times, meaning there is only a 3.825% chance he has AA or KK and you lose to it.
You are more likely against a smaller pair. Call, take your chances and double up.
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