PS $750K super sat - bubble hand, everyone is short
We are on the bubble of a $22R Turbo super sat to Sunday’s $500+30 MTT on PokerStars. Started with 83, down to 10, top 9 get seats/T$530 and 10th gets $30. As you can see, nobody at my table has a M over 2.5, and it’s the same situation on the other table as a short stack just doubled up – so it’s going to be hard to wait for someone else to bust out since we are all so short. The villain in this hand is a player that I see playing these sats and the Sunday MTTs often, and I think he is good (meaning he knows how to play the bubble), but I’ve actually never played with him before.
PokerStars Game #3125325527: Tournament #15326096, Hold'em No Limit -
Level XVI (4000/8000) - 2005/11/22 - 02:26:08 (ET)
Table '15326096 10' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: stpdry31 (25640 in chips)
Seat 6: 1001001 (17720 in chips)
Seat 7: stogie smokr (13176 in chips)
Seat 8: DieRatty (29486 in chips)
Seat 9: the dudester (28650 in chips)
stpdry31: posts the ante 400
1001001: posts the ante 400
stogie smokr: posts the ante 400
DieRatty: posts the ante 400
the dudester: posts the ante 400
DieRatty: posts small blind 4000
the dudester: posts big blind 8000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to the dudester [Td As]
stpdry31: folds
1001001: raises 9320 to 17320 and is all-in
stogie smokr: folds
DieRatty: folds
the dudester: ???
I don’t have access to pokerstove right now, but I think villain will push here with A5+, K9+, Q10+, J10+, and any pocket pair higher 55+. I think I’m ahead of that range, and I’m definitely getting the correct odds to call (31,000:9,000 = 3.4:1), but does this matter? I mean, I'm not playing for first here so chip accumulation is much less important than survival. But, having said that, I am not guaranteed to survive if I fold - unless someone goes out in the next few hands, I will likely have to push in the next 6 hands with little FE (only 2xBB). If I call and win, I’m practically guaranteed a seat, but if I call and lose, I’m down to 11,000 with the small blinds next hand. So if I lose, I’m basically sitting with 6,500 behind my small blind.
Do you call or fold and why?
ts-
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