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The following hand I'm in the 3rd seat left of the big blind, the first two players fold and I have 5s5d and raise to $125 just like the player on the previous hand. I decided to raise with this small pair to either pick up the blinds or pick up the pot on the flop if my preflop bet gets called. I chose to raise 5 times the big blind because I believe that I would get raised if someone had a great hand and get called if someone had a good hand, and figured the size of the raise would eliminate players from calling me with ace-rag and small suited connectors which would make it difficult to put my opponent on a hand, plus I would not want a multiway pot with this hand when I am out of position to play it. I figure if I had just called the blind I could easily be raised from behind and will have to let my hand go.

The player in the cutoff seat calls and the button and blinds fold. I figured since he called he does not have a great hand but a good hand, so I put him on AQ, AJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, or 22. If he had AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or AK I'm sure I would have been reraised before the flop, since they usually play those hands fast in a satellite.

I get a good flop of 3d6s7c giving me a gutshot straight draw. The pot size is $300, so I bet half the pot. I figure this to be the correct bet based on the texture of the flop and my opponents possible holdings. If my opponent has AQ, AJ, 55, 44, or 22 he should fold because he is not getting the correct pot odds to call. If he has TT, 99, or 88 he will reraise to define his hand or call since he has an overpair. If he believes I have AK or AQ he could be thinking that I would have 32 combinations of AK and AQ as compared to 24 combinations of AA, KK, QQ, or JJ and may reraise me if he has AQ, AJ, TT, 99, or 88. If he has flopped a set of sevens, sixes, or treys my opponent will call if he is a good player since my likely holdings could be AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, or AJ and there is no flush draw on the board. If he believes I have AK, AQ, or AJ he will hope that I improve my hand on the turn so I will bet it and become committed to the pot.

My opponent calls my $150 bet. This kind of narrows down what he could be holding. He may be calling me with AQ or AJ and he could have me beat with a set of sevens, sixes, or treys. If he had tens, nines, or eights I think he would have raised me to define his hand, but he still could be just calling me down with those pairs, so I will devalue these by 50% from his possible hands, because I believe there is a 50% chance he could make either decision.

On the turn comes a Jd and I checked for several reasons. Since, I had put in $275 of my $1000 stack in the pot, I did not want to take the chance to bet again and become pot committed on a hand that I could lose all my chips. The Jd could have gave him a pair.

If my opponent has AJ I would have to give up the pot if he bets. Furthermore, since I checked, he may think that I raised preflop and bet on the flop with a medium pair like TT, 99, 88 or an ace hand like AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A6, or A5 which gives him 114 combinations (12 combinations of AK, AQ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A6 and A5 each, and 6 combinations of TT, 99, and 88 each). Plus, he may also believe that I made a set of jacks and am checking them to trap him, even though this would be unlikely since he theoretically would be holding a jack which would leave only 1 combination of jacks to make a set. Since, the most likely hands I hold based on combinations would be AK or AQ after I had checked, I expect him to bet to stop me from drawing to a K or Q which could theoretically beat him on the river if he has an AJ, so he has to bet his AJ if he has this hand. Another reason to check was that I still had six outs to improve my hand to a great hand if a 5 or 4 came on the river.

After I check the turn my opponent checks. His check indicates that he does not have AJ. If my opponent has AQ that is 16 combinations that lose. I devalued his tens, nines, or eights on the previous round since he didn't bet, and I now devalue his small set of sevens, sixes, or treys by 50%, because he should have bet the turn if he thought I was still drawing to a K or Q to make my hand. I think that my opponent would bet a set of sevens, sixes, or treys so I don't get a free card in order to improve my hand, check AQ because he needs to improve his hand, or check a pair of tens, nines, or eights because he thinks I am bluffing or weak and he wants to show the hands down without losing any chips.

On the river comes the Th. I check on the river to give my opponent a chance to bluff with his AQ, and if he has nines or eights he is going to check because that response would follow his responses from previous rounds. He can only beat me if he has flopped a set of tens, sevens, sixes, or treys that gives him 12 combinations that can beat me, and since I devalued the possibility of him having a set or tens by 50% I will reduce his winning set combinations to 6. If he does have nines or eights I will count 6 of those combinations since I had devalued them by 50%. I estimate my opponent has a 40% chance of beating me. Furthermore, he will probably bluff 50% of the time on the river since I showed weakness on the turn, so I will have to call a river bet. If I had bet the river my opponent would have folded 60% of the time. By checking I gave him the opportunity to bluff on the river, and I would have called that bet.

My opponent checks and shows me AdQc.

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That is the longest analysis ever typed about the 3rd hand of a tournament.