[oreogod]

Well here is the real story, morning glory. I did a weighed outs division, and it look like at most u had 3-4outs, (counting the gutshot as 2 outs, because u are not playing for the whole pot, only half).

Now I do a Pstove analysis...as seen below:


Majority Range:

17,820 games 0.110 secs 162,000 games/sec

Board: 2h As 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 16.7144 % 15.49% 01.23% { AhQs }
Hand 2: 83.2856 % 82.06% 01.23% { 44, 22, A4s, A2s, A4o, A2o }


Minority Range: (if u felt so inclined u could add A3 in and that would boost equity to 35 percent)

32,670 games 0.020 secs 1,633,500 games/sec

Board: 2h As 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 25.7821 % 24.76% 01.03% { AhQs }
Hand 2: 74.2179 % 73.19% 01.03% { A5s, 53s, 42s, A5o, 53o, 42o }


Okay, so now what?:

Do a sweet little calc as follows...giving majority range full reign 90 percent of the time and the minority 10 percent of the time and we get:

.9(16.75) + .1 (25.78) = 15.08+2.58 = 17.66 percent equity which ~4.66:1 odds to improve or effective odds to call down (meaning if u wanted to call down to showdown, ud need 4.66:1 effective odds calling a turn and river bet.).

Conclusion: By no means is this the a thread ender (it might be, dunno), but when I first read your hand, I was not a big fan of the fold. Going by the math of Pstove, I still dont like it. The only reservations are the weighed division I did before Pstove which gave u 3-4 outs. I wonder how Pstove calculates split pot outs, as this could effect the math a bit. Anyway, thats my two cents.