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Old 10-27-2005, 06:03 PM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: New to O8, flopped nut-straight, what do I do??

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I like raising the turn for value here, as Hero has also picked up the nut flush draw.

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Jedi - It's true that Hero has picked up the nut spade flush draw. However, out of the 44 unseen cards at this point, only 7/44 enable the spade flush without also pairing the board. On the other side of the balance, 22/44 of the remaining cards are bad for Hero, possibly enabling a better hand for an opponent. (The other 15/44 cards are good for Hero, making a total of 22/44 good cards and 22/44 bad cards for Hero).

Hero thus seems to be (at fist glance) getting 3 to 2 fresh money odds on an even money proposition. However, I think that's deceptive. Without a non-pairing spade on the river, Hero may be quartered for high (with an opponent, or maybe even two opponents, having 86XY for high. Because of this quartering/sixthing effect, Hero is actually getting about 2 to 3 fresh money odds on an even proposition. Considering that Hero has two sixes, this is perhaps closer to even than 2 to 3. Let's say it's somewhere in-between even and 2 to 3. And if Hero's bet knockes out an MP2 who is no threat, then Hero is getting less favorable odds than that.

The point is, Hero doesn't actually have as favorable odds to bet as it might at first glance appear, and might even have unfavorable odds to do so.

In addition, Hero, by raising, if anyone puts him on the nut flush draw for the raise, may end up winning less on the river if he does make the spade flush.

However, raising here isn't terrible. In my mind it's very close between raising and just calling.

Just my opinion.

Buzz
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