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Old 12-29-2005, 06:09 PM
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Default Re: I Know 2+2 Wants To Kill Me For This......

Stellar,

You deserve to be commended, as you did a phenominal job throughout this whole thread.

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The "neutral EV" flop bets changed the EV mathematics of the whole hand.

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This is a very important concept. There is a standard argument that money you put in the pot belongs to the pot and is no longer yours. This argument is usually brought up when evaluating correct "chasing" odds. At the time of the decision (flop, turn, river, etc.) the argument is valid. The money in the pot doesn't belong to you and therefore the pot is already bloated. However, there are certain preventive measures that can be taken at the "time of bloating" which will allow us to make correct folds when we're supposed to (Kurosh's thread illustrated this idea).

In the current hand, I believe capping preflop with AKo will give us correct odds to call on the turn fairly often....and won't allow us the opportunity to make the right fold in that spot, as exemplified in Kurosh's thread. Just calling preflop may or may not do this and for that reason, I believe calling to be a better option than capping.

There's one other thing from Kurosh's thread that can redefine the way we look at decisions. Bloating to give correct odds for a later call is bad when we're currently -EV. As the thread pointed out, there are situations where pumping the pot can hurt us when we're currently "EV neutral". Using that line of logic, there have to be situations where pumping can be a detrement EVEN IF WE'RE SLIGHTLY +EV!! This can happen any time the value we get by pumping is less than the value we lose by not being able to make a correct laydown. It's a VERY interesting concept.

All of this is separate from implied odds or reverse implied odds. Kurosh completely removed those from his example and the paradox still existed. The way we assess EV on any given street has to include the (-EV now, +EV later) possiblity of future calls when we don't currently have the winning poker hand.
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