[StellarWind]

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What we do in EV neutral situations has a direct bearing on whether or not actions on the later streets are positive.

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The kurosh example is deceptive because the flop action is *not* EV neutral.

That thread floated all over the place, so let me recap some assumptions:

1. Preflop pot of 3 SB.

2. Hero has a draw with a 1/3 chance of completing by the river.

3. Hero has no fold equity with an unmade hand. He will always have two opponents unless he makes his hand.

4. Hero cannot collect any bets after he completes his draw.

5. Hero will be wringered on the turn and have to pay 4 BB to see the river. I added this assumption to clarify my point.

6. There is no cap on the flop.

Argument:

Each flop bet gives 2-1 odds and has a 1/3 chance of winning, therefore it is EV neutral (zero EV). Except for variance it would appear that it doesn't matter how many bets go in on the flop. The curious thing is that if no money goes in on the flop then Hero will not have pot odds to call the turn (1/5 chance to win), but if many bets go in on the flop the pot will become bloated and calling four bets on the turn becomes correct.

Paradox:

The "neutral EV" flop bets changed the EV mathematics of the whole hand.

Resolution:

Limit hold'em players are so accustomed to never folding flush draws that they accepted the "2-1 bet odds and 1/3 chance to complete draw means neutral EV" spiel without question. But it's wrong and if I redid the example with a big table full of callers and a gutshot people would see it immediately. We all know you can't count on two pulls at a gutshot. The odds on turning the flush draw are only about 4-1 and the 2-1 bets on the flop are clearly negative EV.

Only when the pot becomes sufficiently large that Hero is river committed do the well-known flop 2-1 bet odds come into play.

A similar effect occurs with gutshots. If I drop Ed Miller's famous $1000000 into the pot preflop, then I can start value-betting the flop at roughly 5-1 odds with a nut gutshot because I'm guarenteed to see two cards.