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Old 11-28-2005, 09:39 PM
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Default Re: Multi-way pot with a flopped straight-flush draw

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I fold... neither straight nor flush is anywhere close to being the nuts. (unless you hit your straight flush, although that's still NOT going to be the nuts..) I don't think high clubs are going to fold this, neither are hands like JT, or T9, etc...

I think you'll be drawing very thin if you pushed this here, unless your villians are way tight and all fold, which at a $10 Party SNG is highly unlikely.

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What, you think they all hit this flop hard?

The point is you will have a strong draw against anyone who didn't flop a flush... and you still have outs even there.

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I don't think anybody with the Ac/Jc (possibly Kc/Qc) is folding here, therefore blowing away most of your outs that make you favourite against a pair. I just don't see you having the 15 outs that you imagine having here.

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You have a pair already. If AcKh wants to come along, for example, you're fine with that. If they have a better pair *and* a higher club, just draw to the non-club straight instead.

Sure, you can construct scenarios where each villain has specifically the type of hand that kills a different set of your outs, but how often will that happen?

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In my opinion the key to this hand is the multi-way pot, which means the situations you mention will occur more frequentely.

Another key is "Sams" t85 bet, less than 1/4 of the pot. This bet usually screams of somebody wanting a cheap draw. More often than not, at the $10 level from somebody with the Ac. And I see this hand calling your push very often. Yes an OESD and flush draw IS a strong hand and favoured over any ONE pair.. but let's not get carried away with this. In a mutli-way pot you're more often against more than one pair, or a stronger draw. I still believe a fold here is correct.
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