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Old 10-06-2005, 04:47 PM
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Default Re: QQ on a scary board, lots of action.

I suck at poker and only play 0.50/1.00 so I don't know what it means if I like the way you played it. It is not like you are on a steal attempt, and neither of your opponents is a maniac.



The play that really scares me is is BB's Turn bet, I am putting him on at least two pair if not a set (based on the action I am leaning more towards a set, but that is less likely from a card distribution perspective, so lets make it 50/50. - ignoring the straight potential for now).

Against a set you have 2 outs, and against two pair you have at best 12 outs (but if the villan has two pair, then 6 of those are very dirty, and would be discounted) so lets discount the 12 to 8...

.50 x 2 = 1
.50 x 8 = 4

Therefore you have 5 outs, only considering the villan to have 2 pair or a set, if you want to put him on T8 for the straight you are also drawing dead, thus you may want to discount the 5 outs to 3.5 or 4. Take into account the chances that a 'pair the board card hits' and you are up against a FH (provided the villan is on 2 pair or a set alread) and you can further reduce your outs to 3 or 3.5.

At this point you are drawing very thin, but you may want to call with implied odds (only if you disagree with my outs calculation and instead think that you have 4 or 5 outs) on the turn, however, the above may represent a best case scenario (it could also be complete gibberish).

I am folding this on the turn.

Margon
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