Re: Riverbluff +EV?
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check the turn dude - you're frequently going to get raised there.
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Even on the turn, you've got equity against a fish. 15 outs? That's around 32% to win on the river assuming he has a pair. If he does not, you have 21 outs (assumption you are not outkicked for simplicity). That's almost 42%. Plus you only need at least 18% fold equity on the turn to make your bet at worst break even. Even fish fold more than 1 in 5 on the turn to continued aggression.
On the issue of getting raised, you're not losing much: 18% on your bets. Unless he has a set which is unlikely. In that case you have about 22 or 23% equity. So you lose a little more than half a big bet. I think your fold equity is crucial for betting here and outweighs the threat of a raise.
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