Re: Riverbluff +EV?
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Dude, he's got an 80% VP and a 40% WSD? My WSD is barely over 30% and my VP is only 18%. This guy is showing down absolute garbage.
DO NOT TRY TO BLUFF THE FISH.
You win gobs of money off these guys by flopping top pair and having them chase you down with their pocket 4s or whatever. The corrolary to that is that you cannot expect to bluff them.
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Showing down "absolute garbage" results in a WSD that looks like 60-80%. 40% WSD is probably showing down most mid-pairs and folding the bottom pair and high card hands. The fact that the board was paired decreases the chance that he has a pair. Therefore, you must consider the types of draws villain could have had.
I don't know why you think that having an 18 VPIP and 30 WSD really makes you that much tighter than villain postflop. You're seeing the showdown 75% of the times he is when you both see the flop (could also be much closer because of the likely sample size issue). That's *NOT* a whole lot more. It's just that you see significantly fewer flops.
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