Re: Spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
I'd rather get the next one or two cards for cheap, rather than getting trapped between people who like their hands.
[/ QUOTE ]
The problem with a free (or cheap) card play here is that this extra card doesn't have much value to you unless one of your backdoor draws improves on the turn. Lets say it's checked to you on the turn.
Your BD draws don't improve
You only have a 4.3% chance of improving your hand (2/46 chance of getting your river J). In such a case, 95.7% of the time, this play will be worthless to you. The times that it does work, you may still lose to a straight, or MP2 might have KKK and you are still behind.
BD draws improve
If a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes, the next card will only help you 19.6% of the time (the percentage of the time that the next card is also a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for your flush), and some of those times someone will have a bigger [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If a Q comes, it will help 17.4% of the time when an A or T follows, and if an A or a T comes, it will only help 8.7% of the time (because you then need your gutshot Q to come in), and some of these times you will be chopping or lose to a rivered flush / boat.
So you only really like this play IF one of your backdoor draws improves on the turn. There are 19 turn cards that can make you like this play (4 As, Ts and Qs, and 7 other [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). There's only a 40% chance that your raise will be useful to you (not only you will win far less than this, but it's going to work far less frequently too).
Since MP2 capped preflop and lead the flop, the chances of this actually working are quite low, so what you have is a very low percentage play. Even worse, if MP2 has KKK, your J outs will only leave you drawing to quads.
Another thing is the pot is so big that even with your raise, gutshots are correct to call the flop. In fact they have much more equity here than you, particularly if MP2 has KKK. So it's your money padding the pot for them. If you do end up chopping with another straight, it's the other guy that got the ass end of the deal, not you.
It's right to fight for big pots but this is a situation where no amount of fighting is going to give you any leverage in the hand. You need to just call and hope for the best. If you do hit your J and someone gets their straight, you now have 10 outs to a boat or quads to beat them, which is a lot better than you were agaist MP2 (as long as MP2 doesn't have KKK).
As for alcohol, Jim Beam or Chivas Regal are my favourites... and I'm not in Jersey unfortunately. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
|