View Single Post
  #25  
Old 12-24-2005, 04:06 AM
chief444 chief444 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 211
Default Re: Flip the Cards Over

I'd call. Seems a bit better than breakeven. He's getting about 13.5:2 on the flop. That's guessing he gets one caller behind him on the flop and never 3-bet. When he catches a T AQ has 6 outs against him on the river. When he catches a 4 AQ has one out. So it's not much of a redraw. I think he'll win 3 BB's when he wins almost every time.

I didn't read any other responses and I'm not doing the actual EV equation. It's more complicated than it seems at first. If anyone does you need to include a turn call as well b/c he'll have the odds to call the turn if a blank falls. You also need to consider that there's some chance button will 3-bet a turn raise which is good. Small chance but definitely some. And then there's also the slight possibility that one of the other two will stubbornly and blindly call down. I see worse calldowns daily. That's also a bonus. Or they may at least both call the flop. Also good. There's also a possibility of a flop 3-bet. Again very slight. But I was just 3-bet on a AKQQ board by pocket 5's about 20 minutes ago. So it's there. Complications upon complications. But it definitely looks +EV.

Changing QQ to KK or whatever may actually sway it if you give AQ a better redraw. I think it would make it closer to breakeven anyway.
Reply With Quote