Re: ATL / BUFF
Here's my weekly Falcons analysis. I will not be betting this game (except as part of a teaser) -- its my policy.
humdinger has it pretty close. however, mathis is out for the year and the question is whether their other nickle corner and punt/kick returner, rossum, will be playing. I actually don't think it matters much for the reasons mentioned by others here -- buffalo can't pass. based on what I saw in tampa, losman is the worst QB in the league. so, notwithstanding the lack of depth of the atl secondary, buffalo won't have success passing the ball. as a further result of this, they won't be able to run the ball. watch closely for the health of brady smith (de), who was out of the seattle game. he will be a key for atlanta stopping the buffalo running attack. they won't have much success anyway, but if brady is in there, buffalo's offense will probably look as bad as in tampa (which was AWFUL).
as for the atlanta offense, i would not expect a lot. i think vick is almost 100% so you shouldn't base any decision here on the fact that he's hurting a little. cadillac ripped through the buffalo defense and they don't have much of a passing threat either, so I would expect atlanta to move the ball against buffalo. jim mora has indicated that they will be opening up the offense -- I'm not sure of what that means, but I can see M. Jenkins or R. White getting open deep in this game. Jenkins has been wide open for TDs 3 times in the first 2 games -- 1 catch to the 1 yd line, 1 drop and 1 overthrow.
final analysis: if you want a side, i wouldn't take buffalo. with atlanta, I'd teas them to 8.5 or 9. on the total, I too like, but don't love the under at 36 -- but I'd be weary about atlanta really being aggressive in this game. they will come out gunning and likely won't let up.
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