Re: Hand...
Alright, I guess it is time to come up with a real analysis. I think he could hold A6-AJ, Q9-QJ, J8-JT, T8-T9, 98, 87, 76. That is 16 combos, but I will discount a bit because sometimes he reraises with some of these hands, and sometimes he folds. I will call it 12 combos. He could also sometimes have a pair preflop. I will say 66-99, which is 24 combos, but I will discount to 20. Then there are 6 combos of 44 or 55, which I will discount to 5. Finally there are the kings, which could be K9-KTs, KJ, KQ. There are 20 combos total, but I will discount to 16.
So preflop:
12 combos of flush draws
20 combos of PPs
5 combos of sets
16 combos of Ks
If there is a 16% chance that he is check/3-betting with his flush draw, and 10% chance that he is check/3-betting with his PP, there are 2 combos of PPs, and 2 combos of flush draws.
If there is a 100% chance he will c/3-bet with his Ks or set, then there are 21 combos of hands that beat us.
Out of the 2 times he has PPs, we will win 8.5 BB 95% of the time, and lose 2 BB 5% of the time. That is a net result of winning 8 BB.
Out of the 2 times he has a flush draw, we will win 8.5 BB 80% of the time, and lose 2 BB 20% of the time. That is a net result of winning 6.5 BB
Out of the 5 times he has a set, we will lose 2 BB
Out of the 21times he has Ks or a set, we will lose 2 BB 95% of the time, and win 9.5 5% of the time, for a net result of losing 1.4 BB (note our 2 outs are extremely valueble).
Final results? (2*8+2*6.5-21*1.4)/25= -.015 BB
I hope I didn't screw up anywhere. I have edited my assumptions a few times so far. I started out forgetting he could have 44, 55, and assumed he check/3-bet his Ks 75% of the time; net result was +.75 BB. Then I changed my assumptions and said he might have kings 88% of the time; net result was +.5 BB. Then I said kings 100% of the time; net result was +.33 BB. Finally, when I put in 44 and 55 at 100% I get an almost break even result. What this means is that your assumptions change the EV of this drastically.
I think that my assumptions have been way too generous to the hands that beat us, and that in reality, this is a call down.
|