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Old 12-30-2005, 12:25 PM
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Default Re: Keep losing with AA. Do you like the fold?

[ QUOTE ]
You played poker instead of playing math - great fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this was sarcastic when I first read it.

You are the definition of pot-stuck here. Let's look at the math.

You're getting about 6:1 on your money for the call. If you're behind, you're a 10:1 dog. If you're ahead, you're a 10:1 favorite.

When you're behind, 10 times you will lose $5, one time you will win $28, for a net loss of $22, or a net loss of $2 per hand.

When you're ahead, 10 times you will win $28, one time you will lose $5, for a net profit of $275 or a net profit of $25 per hand.

Now let's assume that 90 percent of the time, villain does indeed have a set.

Nine hands out of ten, you will lose $2 net. One hand out of ten, you will profit $25 net. It's a net profit of $7, or $.70 per hand. So getting 6:1 on your money is plenty -- even the math dictates a call!

When villain is that short in the stack, you've just got to decide after his flop bet if you're willing to commit if villain pushes. This was a cold-deck hand, but you can't fold it after what you've already put in.

Hey, I had KK with a flop of K64 yesterday, got it all in for $170 against AA and villain sucked an A out on the river to beat me. You'll have to do the same in this case.
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