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#15
12-24-2005, 04:00 AM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?

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I cant resist, After a little thinking I think I have come to a conclusion about which line is better between, raising the turn and betting the river, or raising the turn and checking the river.
If I raised this turn and the UTG player called, I would check the river if i dont improve. Given the way the UTG player has played his hand preflop+flop he is verly likely to have a big over pair AA,KK,QQ. Since he just called the turn he cant have KK, so his most likely holdings are AA and QQ. Given that the hero is a 2-1 underdog against this range, I would check the river, now if you add in other hands like JJ or TT it would swing the river to a bet, but with no information on the villain, I would stick to my QQ-AA read and check the river.

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AA is 6 combos, KK is 1 combo, QQ is 3 combos, given that 2 kings and 1 queen are accounted for. We can discount KK because it inevitably 3bets the turn, and AA must be discounted b/c it will often 3bet the turn too because your hand is quite transparently a pair kings. If AA is discounted 50% then we're breakeven. Throw in some non-zero probability of JJ-TT and we've got ourselves a value bet IMO.

Surf

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IMO, AA should not be discounted. I think there is a great chance the villain can have Aces. Lets rewind here, Jeff did 3 bet preflop, and cap the flop with apparent disregard to the villains preflop cap and flop aggression. From the villain's prespective Jeff has also represented a big overpair type hand like QQ-AA. If the villain has AA I can easily see him just calling Jeff's turn raise fearing Jeff has KK given the way Jeff has played preflop+flop. In fact, I would be more likely to discount QQ than AA here, since the villain may even fold QQ to Jeff's turn raise given all the aggression Jeff has showed thoughout this hand. Assuming the villain would not fold a hand like QQ, I still say that the probability that the villain has AA should not be discounted. And if I raised this turn and the villain called, AA would be the hand I would expect him to have most of time given the way the villain played preflop+flop.