[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno. I doubt he's capping the turn as a bluff. If he donks the river, yeah it's annoying, but my guess is that if you ran the numbers you'd find that if there's even a 15% chance you run him off of a small pocket or get him to fold a weak ace (which still has a 3-outer, or a chance to chop with you) on the turn, the bet/3-bet line is best.


[/ QUOTE ]

45/40 and very aggro postflop is lunatic terriory. He's never folding a better hand to a turn 3-bet, and is easily capable of capping a worse A, any draw, or maybe even a random 6-outer. Guys like this are nuts enough that you have to you have to show your hand down, even if he caps you on the turn. Also, I'm inclined to believe that his preflop capping range here is exactly the same as his preflop opening range.

Just to give you an example of how aggro these types can get:

6-handed 30.

I open A5o in the sb, guy with those type stats calls.

Flop: 2 3 7 rainbow.

I bet, he calls.

Turn: 2 3 7 7.

I screwplay, he 3-bets, I cap (for value).

River was a J, I check, he bets, I call, and he turns over 84o.


On the particular board in the OP's hand, 3 bets total on the turn/river is probably just about right for AK, and there's a decent chance that 3-betting the turn will mean either 5 bets go in, or you make a bad fold.