[lil feller]

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But if Hero is calls the turn it MUST be because he thinks he has the best hand.

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I'm sure you're good enough to realise that "thinking he has the best hand" is not enough. You put your opponent on a hand range. 50% this, 30% this, and 20% this. Not "yeah, I think I'm winning here."

So why can't hero call the turn thinking he's ahead 25%, but fold the river thinking he's ahead 5%?

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I understand what your talking about, honestly I do. I just don't see it possible that vs a player he knows nothing about that a 2nd bet tips the scales that much.

lf