[lil feller]

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How about if you simply expect 80% of unknowns to give up after you call the turn?

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How you arrive at that number I have no idea. I don't guess against players I don't know. I look them up and remember. Picking a number out of the air that makes the fold look better doesn't make it correct.

lf

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It is a game of numbers. Not putting numbers on this sort of thing (whether consciously or unconsciously) is just not using your brain.

You say that the fold is fundamentally wrong. Yet if 80% of unknowns give up after the turn call, it is clearly correct. I'm not saying that the 80% figure is right or wrong, I'm saying that based on the assumption it is right, folding the river is the correct play.

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Obviously its a game of numbers, i'm not an idiot. The problem is how can you safely assume that 80% of unknowns will fold. Every individual person is different at every individual moment in their poker life. Rarely do people make the same decision twice for the exact same reasons. Trying to say that one bet doesn't convince but two bets does, when you know nothing about the player, just seems silly.

I'm not opposed to the flop call. I'm certainly not opposed to the turn call. But if Hero is calls the turn it MUST be because he thinks he has the best hand. Against a known opponent perhaps the river bet can sway that to being certain enought that he's behind. Against an unknown it doesn't change anything. Hero has no knowledge of his standards, and randomly assuming that 80% of unknown online party poker 30/60 players will only bet twice with better than K-high is absurd. I'd be more inclined to believethat 80% of unknowns will bet 100% of the time with every hand they have that doesn't beat K-high. People in that game don't just "give up".


lf