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Old 12-06-2005, 05:40 PM
SoCalPat SoCalPat is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 338
Default Re: Folding the flop for one bet is cool

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This is a standard flop fold IMO, So I think you played this hand well. All you really have here is a draw to one pair, which may or may not be good if you hit it, or when you do hit it on the turn you can easily get rivered.

So you have six outs to a pair that will sometimes win the pot and other times just cost you more money when you lose. This means that you cannot count your draw as a six outer since you wont win every time you hit one of your outs. A better estimate would be that you have 3 pure outs in this situation, and if you add 1 pure out for your backdoor flushdraw you have 4 pure outs IMO.

Now you are gettin 11-1 to call with 4 pure outs, given this information it appears you have just enough to call, however there are 3 people left to act after you, so if you just call there is a decent probability that it will be raised behind you, thus lowering your true odds in this situation. Becuz of a chance of a raising coming behind you, you dont have the odds to call with your weak draw. So folding is the best move.

What about raising the flop?? What will a raise accomplish? Since there are 3 players behind you, I doubt you will be able to muscle them all out, so you will almost never get a free card with this raise, and when you run into a strong hand you will end up paying 3 bets on the flop when you could easily be drawing dead. If the pot were short handed with just one player behind you, then raising this flop makes sense since there is a decent chance the player behind you will fold thus giving you more strategic options on the turn.

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You need to recount your outs.

Easy raise.

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If you see this draw as anything more than a 4 outer you are being too optimistic.

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You can't possibly be serious about folding here.

First, you do have more than four outs. It's not many, but you can make a straight or the nut flush with what you have. There is no possible way you could be drawing dead here.

Second, if you're folding two overcards on the flop every time you're bet into getting 11-1, people will take shots at you all night long. I don't want to cultivate that kind of predictable image. This is small stakes still, where you'll get people betting out with all sorts of hands.

Raising is probably the best play. Merely calling is not a bad play. Folding is bad, not just because you might have the best hand (unlikely) or best draw (possible), but because you're screaming to the rest of the field: I AM WEAK-TIGHT!
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