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Old 08-31-2005, 11:57 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: Blackjack odds question.

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Assuming you play perfectly and adjust your play based on the count (Split 10s if dealer shows a 6 and count is +4 or more....etc.)

What are the odds you will win the hand based on the count?

I know as the count improves you are a favorite and as it gets lower you are more of a dog but is there anyway to get the exact numbers for this?

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That's a misconception. Your probability of winning a hand is about the same for virtually any realistic count, and it is always about 42-43%, with about 9% pushes. See this simulation result. The reason high counts give you a higher EV is because you get more blackjacks, doubles, splits, and correct insurance plays, and because you can vary your bets, not because you win more hands.
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