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Old 10-14-2005, 12:15 AM
NLSoldier NLSoldier is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: St. Cloud, MN
Posts: 91
Default Re: BITCH PLEASE. PARTY20. BLIND VS BLIND.

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I was with you till the turn 3bet...

Its something I would never do, maybe just cuz I am a pussy.
I agree he can have a pretty wide range here, but I just feel like this is spewing.

I suck at pokerstove, can someone tell us how we are doing vs a rang of AK/AQ, any PP (other than 44,66,77) Any 2 broadway hearts, Q9,K9,A9,Q8,K8,A8, JTo,JTs. Am I missing anything or would you agree this is probably his range flawless vic?

[/ QUOTE ]basically, based on his timing and the board texture, i felt it was very likely that turn card helped him... look at all those draws (you left out any hand that contains a 7 or 6)... i did think there may have made a pair of 8s, but i didnt think he could punish me any further with that hand.

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I left out hands with at 7 or 6 cuz I dont see him 3betting with many of those, nor raising the turn with them Maaaybe like Th7h but I think thats a stretch.

Going by my original range...I came up with 52 hands we are ahead of, and 42 we are behind. Which means on the turn we are winning about 55% of the time. But of the times he is behind, he will improve an average of about 20%, and of the times we are behind, we only improve about 4%, and we dont have the 3H, so we could improve and still lose.

Unless his range is signifigantly different than what I have given him (maybe due to bet timing?), or unless this move has huge metagame effects, I dont see how it can possibly be +EV given the calculations I just did.
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