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Old 09-23-2004, 06:14 AM
captZEEbo1 captZEEbo1 is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 264
Default Re: Lederer\'s AK laydown

if chan called, you had to put him on QQ+.
Since Chip went over the top allin, you had to figure he had AJ+ or a pp.

Assuming QQ and any pp, he still is only about a 40% to win...that's BEST CASE scenario. if Chip had AQ, and chan had KK, he'd be sitting at a 22% to win. If either of the two had KK, and other had a pp, he'd be 30% to win. No matter what situation, AK is not looking good. He can find a better spot to make money on. Even with the structure of the tournament, you don't want to gamble a ton early on, with a situation where you are not at least a favorite to win.
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