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Old 11-12-2005, 01:35 AM
ebaudry ebaudry is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 60
Default Re: ($27) Those darned Tens

"I think I priced in QQ and JJ too easily on the turn. Would anyone here fold either of those hands to a 350 bet but call a 250 bet? "

I personally tend to fold QQ/JJ in this kind of scenario early in a tournament, mainly from the idea of my extra skill allowing for higher profitability gambles later on. I'm making the very dangerous assumption that the villain knows about gap, tournament life, etc. Although there is certainly a decent chance you're ahead with QQ/JJ, you might have to commit too many chips (maybe all) to find out, and your drawing super thin if behind to Kx.

To answer your exact question, I would definitely fold QQ/JJ to a pot bet on the Turn from a PF raiser with a King on board. It's just really plausible that a PF could come from AK/KQ/KJ/KK/QQ, so with QQ i'd be hoping you had JJ/TT/99/AQ/AJ/AT, although not too many of those will call the flop bet, combinatorially speaking. With JJ i'd be hoping you had TT/99/AQ/AJ/AT.

I don't think there is much a difference between then 250-350 bets though. I think Harrington recommends 2/3 the pot as a good discouraging bet.

As an aside, I don't think A2 is out of the question for the villian. It's less likely since there are some on the board, but still i see that call all the time.

With your TT, I personally like to raise the flop to find out where I stand. It might end the hand right there, folding out JJ/QQ/AQ/AJ. If called, he'll almost certainly check the turn, and often I see the river then checked, i think because a lot of players are worried the turn check was a trap. (very low buyin tournes excepted). If he bets the river, and you think KJ/KQ/AK are possibilities then you have a "simple" pot odds/combinatorics question depending on the size of his bet, and which range you put him on.

One other advantage of the flop raise vs. calling the flop and potentially the turn, is that the flop raise tends to be a little bit cheaper based on the size of the pot.

Hope this helps.
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