As the economies anticipate a pickup, it seems all the commodities are rising as the bonds fall. But when you look at how this has manifested in crude oil, as compared to coffee, it looks like crude is in more of an uptrend. It seems like the coffee is battling it, and all the groups have picked up a lot of system buyers, but crude looks like it is taking it the most naturally.


Economically, I have no reason to think crude should ever do anything but go to zero. But that's why trend-following is so magical! Perhaps it's, like, binomial, where OPEC suppliers only have to cheat when the price gets low, and can sell even less when the price is sufficiently high, or something.


To reiterate, it doesn't make any sense to me that crude should rise in price. But because it is an uptrend, regardless of what a million idiots with their own ideas think it should be doing, you have to buy.


eLROY


P.S. I remember once, many years ago, I was short way too many thousands of barrels of crude, and one day it spiked up at the close (before dropping two bucks the next day). On the way home, I was driving slow past all the restaurants, looking longingly at those big grease-recycling bins out back, trying to figure a way I could get them on a rail car to Cushing, Oklahoma.