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Old 12-18-2005, 02:13 AM
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Slow play or not?

The only hand you'r worried about here is a 456x draw. If he called the raise and is betting here with such a hand I'd guess he has a flush draw too. maybe even a straight flush draw. Let's a ssume the worst case scenario and see how the numbers turn out.

Worst case: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (the last card doesn't matter very much no matter what it is).

This gives him outs all 11 potential (3 aces, 2 4s, 3 5s, and 3 6s).

40 remaining cards: 11 are his, 29 are yours. 10 cards give him a winning straight. One card gives him a str8 flush. 1 gives him a flush and you boat. 6 give you a better flush. 2 cards give him trips and you a boat. 20 cards leave him with a lousy pair of 7s.

If you call, pot = $200 and your opponent has $400 left (maybe $325 if 400 was his stack before the hand).

If he catches a SF (1/40), he doubles up. You lose $450 relative to a turn fold.

If he completely misses (20/40). You win the pot. That's +$150 relative to a turn fold.

If he makes a non-nut hand (trip 7s, or a lower flush - 9/40) let's say he calls a 1/4 pot value bet. You make $200 relative to a fold on the turn.

If he hits his straight (10/40) let's say you call the same 1/4 pot value bet. You lose $100 relative to a turn fold.

Net EV is :
-450/40 + 150/2 + 200*9/40 - 100/4 = +$84

If you pot it to $250 now he either folds (+150 for you) or call. Let's say you'll call any $200 river bet of his and he'll only call yours if he makes some kind of hand (trip 7s or better).

9/40 you get his stack + the 150 in the pot = +550
11/40 you lose his stack plus the 50 call = -450
20/40 you win the pot on the river but he doesn't call = +350.

Net EV = +$150.

So in the long run you make the same $ if he calls or folds. Obviously, the raise is better if he's on a draw. Of course you didn't need these calulations to tell you that. The important thing to show is that a slow play loses you roughly $66 for every 11 outs he holds in the long run. Let's say $6 per out.

OK. Now let's say he has the best hand for you. One in which he's drawing dead to 1 card and will pay you off a value bet even if a flush hits. These are the types of hands you want him to have if you're going to slowplay. If you pot bet here against such a hand you either win $150 now (he folds) or you get most to all of his stack if he calls (let's say an average of +$450).

The best slowplay scenario for you is that he'll fold to any raise but will call the pot on the river. Maybe he'll even call a river re-raise after a blocking/probe bet but let's say that balances out with folds to keep things simple. One card let's him double up. 39 lose him an extra $200 on the river.

net EV for you = $-450/40 + 350*39/40 = +330

To get the same EV he only has to call your turn pot bet 60% of the time. Further, note that if he'll only call a $100 river bet your slowplay EV drops to only $230. To get that EV with a turn pot raise he only has to call 25% of the time.

So I say a slowplay is bad here. You have to at least raise him 1/2 pot extra to make him pay for a big draw. But since more than 1/4 of the deck will leave you with a tough river situation I say pot it now. As a I showed above, the top draw might have enough implied odds to make anything smaller +EV call for him.
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