Blind Defense - short handed.
Lately I have been playing a fair amount of short handed O8 online. I think I am playing pretty well in general, but I really believe that I don't understand proper play in the blinds. In particular, I don't understand heads up play of "bad" hands.
Here is one such eye-opener...
5c 2c Ad 4h 0.474
7s 5s 7c 6d 0.526
I am really surprised just how much
Changing the 5c to the Kc still only makes the "good" hand a 52-48 favorite.
Using twodimss, I am seeing lots of strange things, but for now let me stick with one example big blind hand.
Suppose I am in the BB with 7s Tc 4d Th
Suppose all fold to the button who raises
Suppose SB folds.
Suppose his hand is a "good" O8 hand.
As 4c 9d 2h 0.486
7s Tc 4d Th 0.514
What the hell? This Piece of dog doo is a favoite?
Now here are some flops...
Flop 1: 8c Kd 3h
As 4c 9d 2h 0.452
7s Tc 4d Th 0.548
Or... Flop 2:
3c 3d 8s
As 4c 9d 2h 0.436
7s Tc 4d Th 0.564
Or... Flop 3
2d 2s 8s
As 4c 9d 2h 0.844
7s Tc 4d Th 0.156
What we have here is a really nasty situation.
When I don't flop a set with my TT, there are a LOT of
flops where I am in decent shape at this point and
yet my hand looks like it totally sucks. And in the
third example, it actually does really suck. If my
opponent had a K instead of a 9 on that first flop then
clearly I am also WAY behind
4c Ad Kh 2h 0.876
7s Tc 4d Th 0.124
As I am looking into this, I am running into a common theme I see in most if not all forms of poker. (and it is one that I still don't know how to handle). This hand seems like it is going to be faced with being a coin-flip on many flops, but that on other flops it will be significantly behind.
I have never understood how to handle such situations. It
seems like folding this hand preflop in order to avoid this nasty dilema is too extreme. If my pre-flop pot equity were typically much lower (say .0.35) then I might simply need to give up even though the pot is offereing me 3.5 to 1 (actually less due to rake).
It can get even nastier.... Suppose the flop comes like
this... 8c Kd Qh
4c Ad 9h 2h 0.289
7s Tc 4d Th 0.711
Now I am big favorite against A249 and a huge dog against
A24K. If faced with a bet, folding TT against the first of these 2 hands is a big mistake.
My instinct is to simply bet out in order to get some idea of where I stand. However, there is a problem. A lot of folks will call here with most if not all hands. Rightly or wrongly they want to see the turn. The problem here is that it is pretty tough to keep leading at the pot with TT74. The call by A249, though technically inferior, has now made my life miserable. If the turn is a three (or any other non-pairing low) my opponent will now have the proper pot odds to call. If he spikes an Ace, I am more or less dead.
And if no low card comes or the board pairs, I am WAY ahead, but I can hardly be expected to know it.
So.... all of the meandering analysis seems to support the idea that playing TT74 heads up from the BB is a real bitch when you miss (and you usually will)
However, with an EV that is often at or near even, simply mucking seems like a big mistake.
Is the combination of poor position and the frequent situation of being "coin flip or way behind" so strong that we must fold away this much equity, or are there some guidelines to help play these hands profitably?
In closing, here is another matchup that blows my mind...
Ts Jc 3d 2h 0.475
6s 4c 2d Ah 0.525
Personally I detest hands with 2 paints and 2 lows. This one is the best of the bunch, and I still hate it for heads up. And yet, a far nicer looking hand is barely ahead.
Crazy game....
Jim
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