[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]


i can't see folding for that price. like dude said, underset + FD is just as likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so against this villian. He is was playing very weak tight. If you are familiar with Poker Tracker stats he had 22/.07/.5 (VPIP/PFR/Post Flop Agg) with a very low went to showdown percentage in ~350 hands. Certainly it's possible but definetly not as likely as having the made straight.

Thought it might be usefull to do an EV calc to see how often he would need lower set + flush draw compared to the made straight. Keeping it simple where with the straight I still have all 10 Boat or better outs and with the set/fd he has 8 outs.

Total pot would be 183 and my current stack is 101.

183 * .227 = ~41
183 * .818 = ~150

150x + 41y = 101

So if I did my calcs right to break even at 101 I need him to have the set/fd about 45% here. Against this guy I am not sure I give much up folding, thought it might be good for the image to call there.

Against an unkown opponent or the other villian I don't think I would have any problems getting it in here.


[ QUOTE ]
If you are raised on the turn I think you need to wind up all-in. Your odds will be close with these stack sizes against a straight, plus there is a decent chance that you are up against a badly played underset by these passive opponents (or underset + flush draw).

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Tilt,

I was thinking a little more on this. If when I made my bet and was content to get all in against either of the opponents, do you still like my bet size? Pot must have been about 38 bucks after rake. Seems if we are going to call the all in maybe we should pot it so that we charge more (have a better shot to win it flat out) and then are getting in with better odds if they push. A smaller bet might be good to induce a semi-bluff raise, but with these pot/stack sizes I think that is pretty unlikely to happen.