[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
alright, i knew all this stuff in university. but now i'm old.. and probably a troll. nominate me for best troll if you want.

anyhow,

if i have 2 BB/hour win rate (could be per 100 hands) and 12 BB/hour standard deviation, what are the odds after 10 hours (X hours) that i am profitable??

it must be somewhat closed form, and i can work the NORMSINV and RAND() functions in microsoft pretty well. so i can do it the old labour intensive way.

but there must be a formula using the normal distribution.

thanks in advance. very much appreciated. and obviously i want to experiment with win rate, standard deviation and hours (could be per 100 hands but i won't ask about conversion)

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming win rate = 2 bb/hr and SD = 12 bb for 1 hour:

=1 - NORMDIST(0,2*10,12*sqrt(10),true) =~ 70.1%

or

=1 - NORMSDIST(-2*10/(12*sqrt(10))) =~ 70.1%

or

=NORMSDIST(2*10/(12*sqrt(10))) =~ 70.1%